Predicting harvest of non-native signal crayfish in lakes – a role for changing climate?

The signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus) was introduced to Sweden in 1960 and it has a high commercial and recreational value, but it may also have negative effects on native ecosystems. To better predict how climate warming will affect population dynamics of this cool-water crayfish, we explored the role of temperature and density dependence as explanatory factors of the subsequent years’ catch rates of commercially sized signal crayfish in four Swedish lakes. We found air-temperatures to be good proxies for water-temperatures in all lakes, except during winter time. We could only obtain water temperature data for Lake Vättern and winter temperature data were therefore only included in the analysis of CPUE patterns in this lake. Our results indicate that increasing mean air temperatures will potentially affect the population dynamics of cool-water freshwater crayfish species such as the signal crayfish. Based on data from four lakes it seems that the population dynamics of signal crayfish are lake specific and could be affected by either recruitment during the juvenile stage, the survival and growth of adults, or both. Increased fluctuations in water temperature during winter time may potentially influence adult survival. In order to better predict the effects of global warming on the dynamics of cool-water crayfish populations, we suggest that future studies should investigate recruitment in crayfish along temperature gradients and the influence of variations in water temperature on winter mortality.The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author