Probabilistic investigation of the seismic displacement of earth slopes under stochastic ground motion: A rotational sliding block analysis

Earthquakes frequently induce landslides and other natural disasters that have a huge impact on human life and properties. In geotechnical engineering, evaluation of the seismic stability of earth slopes has been attracting great research interests. In this regard, the Newmark permanent displacement provides a simple yet effective index of slope co-seismic performance. Traditional Newmark method involves many assumptions and the displacement results thereby calculated are subjected to various degrees of uncertainty. In this paper, a modified rotational sliding block model considering depth-dependent shear strength and dynamic yield acceleration is established. The seismic critical slip surface is analysed through a pseudo-static approach, and the failure volume is larger than that in the static condition. The dynamic yield acceleration is updated by considering the instantaneous movement of the sliding mass in each time-step. The parametric sensitivity of soil shear strength, slope shape and Arias intensity to the permanent displacement is also analysed. The results show that the internal friction angle and the cohesion have equal effects on the permanent displacement. On a logarithmic scale, the displacement approximately linearly correlates with Arias intensity. Furthermore, the underlying uncertainty of the ground motion is introduced to obtain the probabilistic distribution of the seismic slope displacement. The uncertainty of earthquake details has considerable influence on the permanent displacement results.The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author