Transient eco-evolutionary dynamics early in a phage epidemic have strong and lasting impact on the long-term evolution of bacterial defences.

Organisms have evolved a range of constitutive (always active) and inducible (elicited by parasites) defence mechanisms, but we have limited understanding of what drives the evolution of these orthogonal defence strategies. Bacteria and their phages offer a tractable system to study this: Bacteria can acquire constitutive resistance by mutation of the phage receptor (surface mutation, sm) or induced resistance through their CRISPR-Cas adaptive immune system. Using a combination of theory and experiments, we demonstrate that the mechanism that establishes first has a strong advantage because it weakens selection for the alternative resistance mechanism. As a consequence, ecological factors that alter the relative frequencies at which the different resistances are acquired have a strong and lasting impact: High growth conditions promote the evolution of sm resistance by increasing the influx of receptor mutation events during the early stages of the epidemic, whereas a high infection risk during this stage of the epidemic promotes the evolution of CRISPR immunity, since it fuels the (infection-dependent) acquisition of CRISPR immunity. This work highlights the strong and lasting impact of the transient evolutionary dynamics during the early stages of an epidemic on the long-term evolution of constitutive and induced defences, which may be leveraged to manipulate phage resistance evolution in clinical and applied settings