Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions during COVID-19 on future influenza trends in Mainland China

Abstract Background Influenza is a common illness for its high rates of morbidity and transmission. The implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic to manage its dissemination could affect the transmission of influenza. Methods A retrospective analysis, between 2018 and 2023, was conducted to examine the incidence of influenza virus types A and B among patients in sentinel cities located in North or South China as well as in Wuhan City. For validations, data on the total count of influenza patients from 2018 to 2023 were collected at the Central Hospital of Wuhan, which is not included in the sentinel hospital network. Time series methods were utilized to examine seasonal patterns and to forecast future influenza trends. Results Northern and southern cities in China had earlier outbreaks during the NPIs period by about 8 weeks compared to the 2018–2019. The implementation of NPIs significantly reduced the influenza-like illness (ILI) rate and infection durations. Influenza B Victoria and H3N2 were the first circulating strains detected after the relaxation of NPIs, followed by H1N1 across mainland China. The SARIMA model predicted synchronized H1N1 outbreak cycles in North and South China, with H3N2 expected to occur in the summer in southern cities and in the winter in northern cities over the next 3 years. The ILI burden is expected to rise in both North and South China over the next 3 years, with higher ILI% levels in southern cities throughout the year, especially in winter, and in northern cities mainly during winter. In Wuhan City and the Central Hospital of Wuhan, influenza levels are projected to peak in the winter of 2024, with 2 smaller peaks expected during the summer of 2023. Conclusions In this study, we report the impact of NPIs on future influenza trends in mainland China. We recommend that local governments encourage vaccination during the transition period between summer and winter to mitigate economic losses and mortality associated with influenza