Artificial intelligence based system for predicting permanent stoma after sphincter saving operations

Abstract Although the goal of rectal cancer treatment is to restore gastrointestinal continuity, some patients with rectal cancer develop a permanent stoma (PS) after sphincter-saving operations. Although many studies have identified the risk factors and causes of PS, few have precisely predicted the probability of PS formation before surgery. To validate whether an artificial intelligence model can accurately predict PS formation in patients with rectal cancer after sphincter-saving operations. Patients with rectal cancer who underwent a sphincter-saving operation at Taipei Medical University Hospital between January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2021, were retrospectively included in this study. A machine learning technique was used to predict whether a PS would form after a sphincter-saving operation. We included 19 routinely available preoperative variables in the artificial intelligence analysis. To evaluate the efficiency of the model, 6 performance metrics were utilized: accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and area under the receiving operating characteristic curve. In our classification pipeline, the data were randomly divided into a training set (80% of the data) and a validation set (20% of the data). The artificial intelligence models were trained using the training dataset, and their performance was evaluated using the validation dataset. Synthetic minority oversampling was used to solve the data imbalance. A total of 428 patients were included, and the PS rate was 13.6% (58/428) in the training set. The logistic regression (LR), Gaussian Naïve Bayes (GNB), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), Gradient Boosting (GB), random forest, decision tree and light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) algorithms were employed. The accuracies of the logistic regression (LR), Gaussian Naïve Bayes (GNB), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), Gradient Boosting (GB), random forest (RF), decision tree (DT) and light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) models were 70%, 76%, 89%, 93%, 95%, 79% and 93%, respectively. The area under the receiving operating characteristic curve values were 0.79 for the LR model, 0.84 for the GNB, 0.95 for the XGB, 0.95 for the GB, 0.99 for the RF model, 0.79 for the DT model and 0.98 for the LightGBM model. The key predictors that were identified were the distance of the lesion from the anal verge, clinical N stage, age, sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists score, and preoperative albumin and carcinoembryonic antigen levels. Integration of artificial intelligence with available preoperative data can potentially predict stoma outcomes after sphincter-saving operations. Our model exhibited excellent predictive ability and can improve the process of obtaining informed consent