Climate warming-induced replacement of mesic beech by thermophilic oak forests will reduce the carbon storage potential in aboveground biomass and soil

International audienceContext: Climate warming may change the carbon (C) storage in forest biomass and soil through future shifts in tree species composition. With a projected warming by 2–3 K over the twenty-first century, silvicultural adaptation measures and natural succession might lead to the replacement of European beech forests by thermophilic oak forests in drought- and heat-affected regions of central and south-eastern Europe, but the consequences for ecosystem C storage of this species shift are not clear.Aims: To quantify the change in C storage in biomass and soil with a shift from beech (Fagus sylvatica) to oak forest (Quercus petraea, Q. frainetto, Q. cerris), we measured the aboveground biomass (AGC) and soil C pools (SOC).MethodsAGC pools and SOC stocks to − 100 cm depth were calculated from forest inventory and volume-related SOC content data for beech, mixed beech-oak and oak forests in three transects in the natural beech-oak ecotone of western Romania, where beech occurs at its heat- and drought-induced distribution limit.Results: From the cooler, more humid beech forests to the warmer, more xeric oak forests, which are 1–2 K warmer, AGC and SOC pools decreased by about 22% (40 Mg C ha−1) and 20% (17 Mg C ha−1), respectively. The likely main drivers are indirect temperature effects acting through tree species and management in the case of AGC, but direct temperature effects for SOC.Conclusion: If drought- and heat-affected beech forests in Central Europe are replaced by thermophilic oak forests in future, this will lead to carbon losses of ~ 50–60 Mg ha−1, thus reducing ecosystem carbon storage substantially