Tales from the Alberta Triangle: The United States, China and the Evolving Dynamics of Canadian Energy Exports

Presentation at EPOL 2012 in Antalya, Turkey, of my report “Tales from the Alberta Triangle: The United States, China, and the Evolving Dynamics of Canadian Energy Exports.” This presentation marked my first effort to address the international politics of Canadian energy exports, and the results were very positive, generating a lively discussion from attendees who were well versed in European, Middle Eastern and Asian energy dynamics, but who knew little about North American ones. From an International Relations perspective, there is something counter-intuitive about the ease with which Canada has been able to plan its Asian exports of oil and natural gas – the United States, for example, appears to have little difficulty with such an initiative, despite its status as a strategic rival of the most significant prospective buyer. Conventional IR theory suggests that this should cause friction in Canada-US relations but, by and large, this has not been the case. The most compelling explanations for this, I maintain, are (a) that energy has a ‘logic’ of its own that serves frequently to mitigate rather than aggravate international tensions and rivalries; and (b) that even in conventional IR terms, the US has little reason to be concerned about this development, as it may well work to American advantage as well. The Northern Gateway pipeline, for example, would – if completed – allow for crude shipments to refineries in California as well.Canadian natural gas has been exported to the United States, in fits and starts, since the beginning of the 20th Century. Depending on whom you ask, the relationship today is either a testament to faith in open markets, or the folly of a short-sighted exporter selling its endowment to the most convenient (and expedient) bidder. But the dynamics are shifting. The development of shale gas resources in the U.S. has drastically reduced American dependence on foreign gas. Similar discoveries in Alberta and British Columbia have given Canadian producers and governments something new to ponder, and China’s ongoing thirst for energy has led to discussion of a pipeline and liquefaction capability on Canada’s Pacific coast. This paper seeks to evaluate these new dynamics, their effect on Canadian resource decisions, and their implications for the politico-economic relations among the three countries