Chaos and Organizational Emergence: Towards Short Term Predictive Modeling to Navigate a Way Out of Chaos

The paper titled “Chaos and Organizational Emergence: Towards Short Term Predictive Modeling to Navigate a Way Out of Chaos” was presented at the Second International Conference on Complexity Science Management and Intelligent Information System held in Beijing-China from October 14th to October 16th 2011. The paper argued that although organizational emergence from chaotic events has often been described as unpredictable and random, at least when observed over the long term, through a literature review the path could be paved for the possible development of a forecasting model for making short term predictions during chaotic events so as to assist business practitioners in navigating their way out of chaos, thereby facilitating organizational emergence. As such, the paper built on chaos and complexity theory, as its foundational theory, and identified the most important factors and mechanisms cited in current literature that influence organizational emergence so as to potentially incorporate the factors in the future development of a short term forecasting model. Feedback on the ten minute presentation and the paper was received from international academics. The feedback is expected to eventually make its way to a doctoral dissertation on the topic. Generally the paper was well received and was awarded the third prize of the Xu Xusong Complex Science Management Award.This paper is available at:Organizational emergence from chaotic events has often been described as unpredictable and random, at least when observed over the long term. Through a literature review this paper paves the path for the possible development of a forecasting model for making short term predictions during chaotic events so as to assist business practitioners in navigating their way out of chaos, thereby facilitating organizational emergence. As such, the paper builds on chaos and complexity theory, as its foundational theory, and identifies the most important factors and mechanisms cited in current literature that influence organizational emergence so as to potentially incorporate the factors in the future development of a short term forecasting model