Models for Strategy Choice in Random or Potentially Deceptive Environments

The paper was presented in a session of “cognitive agents” on May 31, 2010. It was well received and led to several worthwhile discussions with other participants in the session. Suggestions for extending the work reported in part of the paper were offered (and some of these are already being developed by an NSERC summer student). Special interest was shown in the work reported on models illustrating the advantages of instability for complex systems.Two simulation models are presented illustrative of decision and behavioural choice issues for complex adaptive systems involving cognitive agents. The first illustrates the value of managed instability for complex systems. It explores conditions under which a system able maintain itself in an unstable state gains an advantage in behavioural flexibility offsetting the extra expense involved in maintaining that state against instability. The second model considers the trade-off between quickness and accuracy of response in risk/reward identification, in order to differentiate conditions under which rapid or considered responses are favoured