Analysis and calculation of future water demand in the Netherlands

Voor de onderbouwing van het beleid, alsmede voor een bijdrage aan Milieuverkenning 5 is een analyse uitgevoerd van het historisch waterverbruik en de daarbij behorende winning van grond- en oppervlaktewater. Om inzicht in de toekomstige ontwikkelingen te krijgen zijn tevens prognoses opgesteld. Hierbij is gebruik gemaakt van het prognosemodel WAPRO (versie 99). Economische en demografische ontwikkelingen op basis van CPB-scenario's (EC en GC) zijn gehanteerd bij het opstellen van de prognoses. Verschillende categorien verbruikers zijn beschouwd, zoals huishoudens, industrie en het sterk groeiende klein zakelijk verbruik. Het accent in deze studie heeft gelegen bij productie en levering van leidingwater door de openbare watervoorziening.The study presented here consisted of a small analysis of the water demand in the past and a calculation of future demand using the WAPRO99 model (computer model to calculate projections of water consumption and production). Also described is how WAPRO99 has been used for the National Environmental Outlook 2000-2030. Public water companies in the Netherlands are able to ensure a rapid supply of 100% of the household water demand. New purchase and use of appliances requiring water, and growing public awareness, have led to a more efficient water use. However, specific houshold water demand is expected to decline from 129 litres per capita per day in 1995 to 108 litres per capita per day in 2030. The population in the Netherlands increased from 15.4 and 15.9 million people respectively in 1995 and at the end of 1999 to around 18 million in 2030. As a result future water demand here is expected to decline in the next two decades. The production or activity level of several industrial branches or groups were considered for forecasting industrial water demand (excl. power plants). Public water supply growth was found to increase from 215 in 1995 to 391 million m3 per year (excl. power plants) in 2030 and total industrial demand from around 2500 to 5700 million m3 per year in the same period. Only water supplied through the public water companies to agrarian consumers is considered in this study. This type of water is important for cleaning some kinds of equipment (health aspects), for livestock and for typical kinds of sprinkling. It increases from approximately 90 - 180 million m3 per year. Long-term forecasting for the category of small business activities results in a high production level. Results of forecasting water demand show a decrease from around 250 to 540 million m3 per year.DG