Spatial heterogeneity and scenario simulation of carbon budget on provincial scale in China

Abstract Background Conducting an extensive study on the spatial heterogeneity of the overall carbon budget and its influencing factors and the decoupling status of carbon emissions from economic development, by undertaking simulation projections under different carbon emission scenarios is crucial for China to achieve its targets to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. There are large disparities in carbon emissions from energy consumption, the extent of land used for carbon absorption, and the status of decoupling of emissions from economic development, among various regions of China. Results Based on night light data and land use data, we investigated carbon budget through model estimation, decoupling analysis, and scenario simulation. The results show that the carbon deficit had a continuous upward trend from 2000 to 2018, and there was a significant positive spatial correlation. The overall status of decoupling first improved and then deteriorated. Altogether, energy consumption intensity, population density of built-up land, and built-up land area influenced the decoupling of carbon emissions from economic development. There are significant scenarios of carbon emissions from energy consumption for the study area during the forecast period, only in the low-carbon scenario will the study area reach the expected carbon emissions peak ahead of schedule in 2027; the peak carbon emissions will be 6479.27 million tons. Conclusions China’s provincial-scale carbon emissions show a positive correlation with economic development within the study period. It is necessary to optimize the economic structure, transforming the economic development mode, and formulating policies to control the expansion of built-up land. Efforts must be made to improve technology and promote industrial restructuring, to effectively reduce energy consumption intensity