Comprehensive health risk analysis of heavy metal pollution using water quality indices and Monte Carlo simulation in R software

Abstract Rapid urbanization, population growth, agricultural practices, and industrial activities have led to widespread groundwater contamination. This study evaluated heavy metal contamination in residential drinking water in Shiraz, Iran (2021). The analysis involved 80 groundwater samples collected across wet and dry seasons. Water quality was comprehensively assessed using several indices, including the heavy metals evaluation index (HEI), heavy metal pollution index (HPI), contamination degree (CD), and metal index (MI). Carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk assessments were conducted using deterministic and probabilistic approaches for exposed populations. In the non-carcinogenic risk assessment, the chronic daily intake (CDI), hazard quotient (HQ), and hazard index (HI) are employed. The precision of risk assessment was bolstered through the utilization of Monte Carlo simulation, executed using the R software platform. Based on the results, in both wet and dry seasons, Zinc (Zn) consistently demonstrates the highest mean concentration, followed by Manganese (Mn) and Chromium (Cr). During the wet and dry seasons, 25% and 40% of the regions exhibited high CD, respectively. According to non-carcinogenic risk assessment, Cr presents the highest CDI and HQ in children and adults, followed by Mn, As and HI values, indicating elevated risk for children. The highest carcinogenic risk was for Cr in adults, while the lowest was for Cd in children. The sensitivity analysis found that heavy metal concentration and ingestion rate significantly impact both carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks. These findings provide critical insights for shaping policy and allocating resources towards effectively managing heavy metal contamination in residential drinking water