Explaining technical change and its impacts over the very long term: The case of the Atlantic sardine fishery in France from 1900 to 2017

As an industry based upon the harvesting of wild resources, the fishery is often used in economics to showcase the effects of its specific nature on human behavior and the impacts of that behavior on the fish stock itself. The common-pool status usually encountered in the use of these resources makes them especially vulnerable to major shifts in the supporting ecosystems, but also to rapid technical change. In most other parts of the economy, technical change and the creative destruction that it brings along are viewed positively, and even given central role in recent theories of growth. Happily for the creatures of the ocean that are hunted, fishers do not fit the mould of Schumpetarian entrepreneurs bent on creative destruction. However, the technology that does drift onto boats has had concerning effects on the status of fish stocks with important economic and cultural consequences. We present a narrative of the French sardine fishery using the evolutionary theory of technical change. The wild binary segmentation approach was applied on a time-series of French sardine landings from 1900 to 2017. This analysis revealed three significant production change points associated with important technical changes in the fishery. The first change point, in 1927, is related to the introduction of the purse-seine in France. The introduction of the mid-water trawl is the second change point in the early 1970s. A third change point occurred in 1998, where we see a reswitch from mid-water trawl to purse-seine. Collectively, these results highlight the technological changes in sardine production that occurred, but more importantly, the impacts of these changes both on the structure of the population of sardines, and on the industry. The lesson we derive from this case study is that technical change should be considered as a succession of shifts rather than a unidirectional history