Probabilistic Controlled Airspace Infringement Tool and Conflict Resolution

A current ground based safety net called Controlled Airspace infringement Tool (CAIT) is used by Air Traffic Controllers (ATCs). It warns them if any aircraft within uncontrolled airspace penetrates the Controlled airspace (CAS) without an advance clearance from the ATC. This penetration or ‘Infringement’ is considered as a major concern to ATCs where it may cause a possible conflict or mid- air collision. A conflict is an event which one aircraft loses its minimum separation to another. The downside of CAIT is that it only warns ATCs if the aircraft has already infringed CAS, this gives the ATC minimum time to react and avoid any conflict. In this research, we investigate a model which warns ATCs of possible future infringements accurately. We implement two Kalman filters (KF) as our tracking tool, one for each flight mode: constant velocity and constant acceleration each of which has its own state and observation errors. We will implement on-line learning too for these errors at each time step to predict the future uncertainties more accurately. We will then use two methods to estimate the probability of infringements: shortest distance, and complement this method with the Monte Carlo sampling. We will then review the factors behind CAS infringements and build a classifier based on them to enhance our decision about future infringements. This model warning system could provide ATCs with more time to resolve any possible future conflicts. Our final step will focus on the scenario when multiple aircraft infringe CAS, in case the ATC did not react quickly enough. As of 2019, it is mandatory for all GA to be equipped with a transponder, which sends information such as flight ID, exact location and altitude. Therefore, using this assumption we are investigating an automated method, which alerts and direct multiple GA out of CAS without interfering with commercial traffic. Kinetic triangulation method will be used as an automated manoeuvring tactic, leaving the ATC focusing only on directing commercial flights