Subjective well-being, satisfaction with public services and election outcomes in Turkey

There is an emerging literature to explain the variation in voting behavior by subjective well-being (or ‘happiness’) measures beyond standard economic and financial variables that economic voting models assert. This paper contributes to this new line of research by testing whether subjective well-being indicators are significant predictors of the June 2015 elections in Turkey. Using the 2013 wave of Life Satisfaction Surveys that is representative at the provincial level, our findings indicate that low levels of subjective well-being (‘discontent’) have a strong predictive power on the outcome of elections at the local level, accounting for provincial demographic and socioeconomic covariates, and possible reverse causality. We also use additional questions on satisfaction with public services and find that the Turkish electorate is more responsive to particular policies of the incumbent party rather than general economic conditions, or their general well-being