Climate change impacts on ocean circulation relevant to the UK and Ireland

What is happening • Observations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or Gulf Stream System since the 1980s have shown a strengthening in the 1990s and a weakening in the 2000s, with no clear overall trend. • Shifts in North-east Atlantic circulation, leading to a greater influence of warmer subtropical-origin waters which can impact marine ecosystems and economically important fish species such as mackerel. The changing subpolar ocean circulation is also having impacts on the food supply for deep-sea ecosystems. • The subpolar gyre recorded its freshest values on record in the 2010s. Ongoing freshwater build-up in the rapidly changing Arctic Ocean may exacerbate this freshening. What could happen • Projections from climate models consistently project a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation due to anthropogenic climate change. • Warming of Atlantic waters is expected to reduce the depth of mixed layers and limit nutrient supply to surface layers