Joint effects of species traits and environmental preferences on range edge shifts of British birds

Aim: Despite the strong evidence of species range shifts as a response to environmental change, attempts to identify species traits that modulate those shifts have been equivocal. We investigate the role of species traits and environmental preferences on birds' range shifts in Great Britain, an island where dispersal is limited by the English Channel and the North Sea. Location: Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales). Taxa: Birds (Aves). Time Period: 1968–2011. Methods: Using 404,949 occurrence records from two time periods, we investigated the potential drivers of leading and rear range edge shifts of breeding birds using phylogenetic linear mixed models. We hypothesized that shifts are influenced by species' trophic and morphological traits, dispersal abilities and environmental preferences, but also by the geographical boundaries of Great Britain. Results: Geographical boundaries—the distance from the northern or southern boundaries of Britain—accounted for most of the variability in range edge shifts. Species traits and environmental preferences emerged as relevant drivers of range shifts only for northern and Passeriform species. Northern habitat specialist, those with more predators and those sensitive to precipitation were more likely to shift their rear edge poleward. For Passeriformes, habitat generalists, species with smaller dispersal capabilities, under higher predatory pressure or associated with forest and grassland were more likely to shift their rear edge poleward. Main Conclusions: While geographical boundaries impose constraints on range shifts in British birds, the subtle effects of species traits and environmental preferences emerge as relevant predictors for Northern and passeriform species' rear edge shifts. This highlights the importance of accounting for geographical boundaries when predicting species responses to global change. Differential range shifts of species across different trophic levels could result in the reorganization of biotic interactions, with consequences for ecosystem structure and stability