A Data-Driven Decision-Making Framework for Spatial Agent-Based Models of Infectious Disease Spread (Short Paper)

Agent-based models (ABMs) are powerful tools used for better understanding, predicting, and responding to diseases. ABMs are well-suited to represent human health behaviors, a key driver of disease spread. However, many existing ABMs of infectious respiratory disease spread oversimplify or ignore behavioral aspects due to limited data and the variety of behavioral theories available. Therefore, this study aims to develop and implement a data-driven framework for agent decision-making related to health behaviors in geospatial ABMs of infectious disease spread. The agent decision-making framework uses a logistic regression model expressed in the form of odds ratios to calculate the probability of adopting a behavior. The framework is integrated into a geospatial ABM that simulates the spread of COVID-19 and mask usage among the student population at George Mason University in Fall 2021. The framework leverages odds ratios, which can be derived from surveys or open data, and can be modified to incorporate variables identified by behavioral theories. This advancement will offer the public and decision-makers greater insight into disease transmission, accurate predictions on disease outcomes, and preparation for future infectious disease outbreaks