Advancement of El Nino is a concern for Indian Agriculture in 2023-24

In March 2023, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned of a likely global temperature spike due to the warming El Nino event. Few climate models also predicted that the approaching El Nino phase may lead to severe heat waves and droughts in several countries across South and Southeast Asia, including India. The El Nino is the above-average sea-surface temperatures that periodically develop across the east-central equatorial Pacific. El Nino has historically been the cause of a lot of droughts, floods and storms. It disrupts the usual supply of moisture and causes incessant rains and floods in some places and severe droughts in others. It last occurred in 2018-2019, and happens irregularly with intervals of about two to seven years. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) delivered its first long-range forecast on 11th April for this year’s monsoon and stated that there would be about 60 % chance for the onset of El Nino during May-July, rising to 70-80 % during July- September period. The IMD will also be providing agro-meteorological advisory services and forecast for each of India’s 700-odd districts based on different rainfall scenarios. India can overcome the impact inflicted by El Nino by implementing contingency plans at the district level and initiatives like introducing seeds of late sowing variety, water conservation and management, keeping a check on the monsoon while maintaining natural water bodies will help in transforming the agricultural industry and making it resilient enough to deal with challenges like El Nino. Additionally, promoting sustainable farming is essential as it focuses on environmentally-friendly techniques and can help in reducing El Nino’s impact on the Indian agricultural landscape and crop yield. It is vital that the government and policymakers come up with protocols and initiatives that can protect India against its reliance on rainfall and minimize El Nino’s impact