Humanitarian risks warranting immediate US/NATO intervention in Ukraine.

SUMMARY: The people of Ukraine, a country of 44 million, have suffered a widespread Russian Federation-led military invasion beginning 24 February, 2022, resulting in increasing loss of life, destruction of infrastructure, and deterioration of services. The conflict has kicked off a humanitarian crisis that is rapidly devolving into a catastrophe, with threats of massive numbers of internally displaced persons (IDP) and refugees, significant civilian deaths from indiscriminate aerial and rocket bombardment of urban areas by Russian military forces, and long term political and economic instability. In the short term, individual mental and physical trauma, and dismantling of communities and families may become widespread even in areas that see limited military impacts in the coming days. The rapidly changing environment, uncertainty in outcome and resolution of the conflict, and military threats will make provision of humanitarian relief difficult, necessitating a robust near-term stabilization of the security situation. To this end, we recommend immediate establishment of a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)-led No Fly Zone (NFZ), humanitarian corridors for relief and movement displaced persons, and long term humanitarian commitment to the people of Ukraine. RECOMMENDATIONS: We describe the humanitarian and military rationale for establishing a NATO-led No Fly Zone to prevent Russian air attacks inside Ukraine, and speed an end to the conflict. The ultimate goal of US/NATO direct actions described in this commentary is complete withdrawal of Russian-backed forces from Ukraine and repatriation of Ukrainian territory. Only a resolution where Russian Federation withdraws its forces will facilitate longer term regional security. Moreover, continuation of economic sanctions, appropriate reparations, and referral of evidence to the International Criminal Court (ICC) for prosecution of war crimes against civilians are recommended. This commentary will be used as a resource and reference material for political and humanitarian decision-makers in the United States and other countries.This Commentary is the private work reflecting the expert views of the authors for research purposes only. It was not funded by, should not be construed as an endorsement by, nor does it necessarily reflect the official views of, the US Government, the University of Alaska, Cumberland University, government entities of Ukraine, nor any other institution or agency. Additional Signatories include: S. Nychyk (Director, NAAS IVM: Kyiiv, Ukraine), S. Mandyhra, PhD (Ukraine), I.G. (Ukraine), I.K. (Ukraine), M. Ramishvili, PhD (Georgia), L. Ninua (Georgia), I. Dubchak Ph.D. (USA), M. Redlinger (USA), A. Klink (USA). We thank I.K. (Ukraine) for translation