A stakeholder-informed modelling study of Greece's energy transition amidst an energy crisis: The role of natural gas and climate ambition

While fossil fuel prices soar during the 2022 global energy crisis, the European Union activates all available fossil-fuel levers and Greece still plans to use natural gas as a transition fuel for delignitisation, with strong concerns over potential exacerbation of energy poverty and hurdles to progress in climate action. This study assesses the trajectory of the Greek electricity mix and its reliance on natural gas under the current policy framework on the one hand, and an ambitious scenario aiming for complete decarbonisation by 2035 on the other. We model these scenarios using an energy system modelling framework, comprising LEAP and OSeMOSYS model implementations for Greece, and use a stakeholder-informed fuzzy cognitive mapping exercise to uncover transition uncertainties. While power generation from natural gas is projected to increase by almost 50% until 2030 under existing policies, the proposed decarbonisation scenario has the potential to achieve complete independence from Russian gas by 2026 while also leading to a cleaner and considerably cheaper power sector. This ‘higher climate ambition’ scenario is found feasible and more robust in case high fossil fuel prices persist post-2022, even if bottlenecks stressed by stakeholders such as community acceptance or technological constraints emerge and potentially constrain the expansion of certain renewable energy technologies. Apart from the added value of stakeholder input in modelling science, as reflected in the impact of barriers Greek stakeholders critically highlighted, our results emphasise that a diversified energy-supply mix alongside bold energy efficiency strategies are key to rapid and feasible decarbonisation in the country.Aside from "IAM COMPACT" (Grant No. 101056306), the authors also gratefully acknowledge the financial support from the H2020 PARIS REINFORCE project (Grant No. 820846)