Long-term changes of the trophic status in transitional ecosystems of the northern Adriatic Sea, key parameters and future expectations: The lagoon of Venice as a study case

The determination of the trophic status of transitional ecosystems from the physico-chemical and biological point of view is one of the requirements of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD 2000/60/EC). In Italy, its determination is implemented by the Regional Agencies for Environmental Protection (ARPAs) that have activated multi-annual monitoring programs. However, as the availability of funds is increasingly scarce, the number of environmental parameters to detect environmental changes should be conveniently managed. The high number of environmental parameters, nutrient and macrophyte datasets available for the LTER-Italia site "Venice lagoon" can be an useful tool to analyze the trophic changes over recent years and to foresee environmental evolutions. Nutrient data on a spatial basis have been available since 1948, whereas macroalgal maps date back to 1980. The aim of this paper is to highlight the changes of the trophic status of the lagoon since the middle of the 20th century by considering the concentrations of nutrients in the surface sediments and in the water column, the variation of some physico-chemical parameters and the biomass of macroalgae and also to foresee the way it will possibly evolve. In fact, after many anthropogenic impacts that in the second half of the 20th century affected the lagoon, starting from the year 2010, the ecological status is progressively improving. Nutrients show a significant reduction both in the water column and in surface sediments, and the macrophytes are represented by species of higher ecological value while the opportunistic species such as the Ulvaceae are in strong regression