Data for: Range reshuffling: climate change, invasive species, and the case of Nothofagus forests in Aotearoa New Zealand

Aim: The impact of climate change on forest biodiversity and ecosystem services will be partly determined by the relative fortunes of invasive and native forest trees under future conditions. Aotearoa New Zealand has high conservation value native forests and one of the world's worst invasive tree problems. We assess the relative effects of habitat redistribution on native Nothofagus and invasive conifer (Pinaceae) species in New Zealand as a case study on the compounding impacts of climate change and tree invasions. Location: Aotearoa New Zealand Methods: We use species distribution models (SDMs) to predict the current and future distribution of habitat for five native Nothofagus species and 13 invasive conifer species under two 2070 climate scenarios. We calculate habitat loss/gain for all species and examine overlap between the invasive and native species now and in the future. Results: Most species will lose habitat overall. The native species saw large changes in the distribution of habitat with extensive losses in North Island and gains mostly in South Island. Concerningly, we found that most new habitat for Nothofagus was also suitable for at least one invasive species. However, there were refugia for the native species in the wetter parts of the climate space. Main conclusion: If the predicted changes in habitat distribution translate to shifts in forest distribution it would cause widespread ecological disruption. We discuss how acclimation, adaptation and biotic interactions may delay some changes. But we also highlight how the poor migration and establishment capacity of native Nothofagus and the competitive ability of invasive conifers will be a persistent conservation challenge in areas of both new habitat and forest retreat. Pinaceae are problematic invaders globally, and our results highlight that control of invasions and active native forest restoration will likely be key to managing forest biodiversity under future climates.R (open source) is required for running the code and opening .rds files. Other files are .csv and .tiff. Funding provided by: University of OtagoCrossref Funder Registry ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100008247Award Number: ORG 0120-0321Some data were drawn from the New Zealand Natural Forest plot data collected between January 2002 and 2022 by the LUCAS programme for the New Zealand Ministry for the Environment. Other data orignated from our own field work (van Galen et. al. (2023) Molecular Ecology 32, 2092– 2109). The remaining data used in the manuscript were downloaded from the Atlas of Living Australia (ALA) and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF); due to licensing requirements these data are available via DOIs provided in the manuscript and README file