Impact of temperature on first-wave Covid-19 transmission in Nigeria

The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) which caused about 80,000 Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) incidences during its first wave in Nigeria is an enveloped virus, with infective properties that make it susceptible to inactivation, upon exposure to harsh environmental conditions. Moreover, temperature has been reported to influence the spread and viability of most known human coronaviruses. The study examines the impact of temperature variables on the transmission of COVID-19, during its first wave in Nigeria. Daily COVID-19 incidences for 300 days of the virus presence in Nigeria used in the estimation of the instantaneous reproduction number (R). In this study, R was used to measure COVID-19 transmissibility, while the daily incidences reflected the spread rate of the virus in Nigeria. Meteorological data were then matched with each of R and COVID-19 incidences, to determine the correlation between them, using Spearman's correlation coefficient (rs) test. R estimation of 1.4 reflected the prevailing transmissibility of first wave of COVID-19 in Nigeria. Although no significant and positive relationship was observed between COVID-19 incidences and temperature variables. The strong relationship observed between R and the temperature parameters, suggests that temperature could be a driver modulating the transmission routes of COVID-19 in Nigeria