Geodetically Inferred Coseismic and Postseismic Slip due to the M 5.4 31 October 2007 Alum Rock Earthquake

On 31 October 2007 the M 5.4 Alum Rock earthquake occurred near the junction between the Hayward and Calaveras faults in the San Francisco Bay Area, producing coseismic and postseismic displacements recorded by 10 continuously operating Global Positioning System (GPS) instruments. The cumulative postseismic displacements over the four months following the earthquake are linearly related to the cumulative number of aftershocks and are comparable in magnitude to the coseismic displacements. The postseismic signal suggests that, in addition to afterslip at seismogenic depths, localized right-lateral/reverse slip occurred on dipping shallow fault surfaces southwest of the Calaveras. The spatial distribution of slip inferred by inverting the GPS data is compatible with a model in which moderate Calaveras fault earthquakes rupture locked patches surrounded by areas of creep, afterslip, and microseismicity (Oppenheimer et al., 1990). If this model and existing Calaveras fault slip rate estimates are correct, a slip deficit remains on the 2007 Alum Rock rupture patch that may be made up by aseismic slip or slip in larger earthquakes. Recent studies (e.g., Manaker et al., 2005) suggest that at depth the Hayward and central Calaveras faults connect via a simple continuous surface illuminated by the Mission Seismic Trend (MST), implying that a damaging earthquake rupture could involve both faults (Graymer et al., 2008). If this geometry is correct, the combined coseismic and postseismic slip we infer for the 2007 Alum Rock event predicts static Coulomb stress increases of ∼0.6 bar on the MST surface and on the northern Calaveras fault ∼5 km northwest of the Alum Rock hypocenter