Рождаемость в Республике Молдова: европейские тенденции и национальная специфика

Currently, the official statistics of the Republic of Moldova, based on the population de jure data that include citizens who are absent 12 months or more in the country, give an underestimated total fertility rates, which led to the country being classified as a country with lowest-low fertility. Based on the de facto population data and the results of the Population and Housing Census of 2014, the level and main trends in the fertility dynamics in period and cohort perspective are analyzed. The main goal of the study is to trace to what level the fertility rate has decreased in the Republic of Moldova and whether it can be attributed to countries with low or lowest-low fertility. The results of the research show that the transformation of fertility takes place according to the general model specific for most countries that have completed or are in the process of fertility transition, but is characterized by a lower tempo. In the last years, period fertility rate was set at 1.6-1.65 births per woman, whereas cohort`s that completed or are at the end of the reproductive period at 1.9-2.0 births per women. Even for the youngest generations, who reached the age of 35 at the time of the census (2014), the average number of children born exceeded 1.7. Although the average number of births is decreasing by the end of the reproductive period in the intercensal period, the average number of births per women at the age of 50 is 2.1, and the proportion of those who have not given birth to any child remains relatively low. Based on the results of the study, the author concludes that the Republic of Moldova does not belong to countries with low or lowest-low fertility, and the preservation of a higher fertility than in other countries is determined by the predominance of the rural population in the general structure