The timing, tempo and mode of the Neolithic expansion across the Central Balkans

The Central Balkans represents an important corridor for the spread of the farming populations from the origins of the European Neolithic in Greece further into the Central Europe. The absolute date of the first appearance of the Central Balkan Early Neolithic Starčevo culture in this region has been established by previous research (based on the relatively low number of radiocarbon dates) to a period after 6200 BC, but the demographic and social specifics as well as the spatio-temporal dynamics of the expansion remain unknown. In this paper we integrate new radiocarbon evidence from the BIRTH project with statistical analysis and mathematical modelling (implemented in computer simulation) in order to answer the following questions about the spread of the Neolithic across the Central Balkan region. 1. When did the Neolithic arrive to the Central Balkans? 2. What was the speed and the spatial pattern of the expansion? 3. What were the demographic features of the first Neolithic populations in terms of fertility and mortality? 4. What was driving the expansion? Our results confirm the previous dating of the Neolithic entry into the Central Balkan area ~6200 BC, pushing it possibly a few decades earlier. The spatio-temporal pattern of the expansion is in line with the Wave of advance model, with the farming front spreading relatively fast and following the north-south axis in general, but with potential evidence for leapfrogging over larger distances. The computer simulation results suggest that the expansion was fueled by very high fertility and low to medium mortality, and that the primary reason for migration was social rather than economic (i.e. due to limitations of environmental carrying capacity)