Biomass potential via light interception of novel miscanthus hybrids from field trials

New biomass crop hybrids for bioeconomic expansion require yield projections to determine their potential for strategic land use planning in the face of global challenges. Our biomass growth simulation incorporates radiation interception and conversion efficiency. Models often use leaf area to predict interception which is demanding to determine accurately, so instead, we use low-cost rapid light interception measurements using a simple lab-made line ceptometer and relate the dynamics of canopy closure to thermal time, and to measurements of biomass. We apply the model to project the European biomass potentials of new market-ready hybrids for 2020–30. Field measurements are easier to collect, the calibration is seasonally dynamic and reduces influence of weather variation between field sites. The model obtained is conservative, being calibrated by crops of varying establishment and varying maturity on less productive (marginal) land. This results in conservative projections of miscanthus hybrids for 2020-30 based on 10% land use conversion of the least (productive) grassland and arable for farm diversification, which show a European potential of 80.7–89.7 Mt y-1 biomass, with potential for 1.2-1.3 EJ y-1 energy and 36.3–40.3 Mt y-1 carbon capture, with seeded M. sacchariflorus x sinensis displaying highest yield potential. Simulated biomass projections must be viewed in light of the field measurements on less productive land with high soil water deficits. We are attempting to model results from an ambitious and novel project combining new hybrids across Europe with agronomy which has not been perfected on less productive sites. Nevertheless, at a time of energy sourcing issues, seed-propagated miscanthus hybrids for the upscaled provision of bioenergy offer an alternative source of renewable energy. If European countries provide incentives for growers to invest, seeded hybrids can improve product availability and biomass yields over the current commercial miscanthus variety.Excel (.csv files) and ArcGIS coverages (zipped)Funding provided by: Supergen Bioenergy Hub (EPSRC)fellowship*Crossref Funder Registry ID: Award Number: EP/S000771/1Funding provided by: Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research CouncilCrossref Funder Registry ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000268Award Number: - Perennial Bioenergy Crops for greenhouse gas removal demonstrator BB/V011553/1Funding provided by: Europe Bio-based Industries Joint Undertaking - GRACE project*Crossref Funder Registry ID: Award Number: 745012Funding provided by: UKERC4*Crossref Funder Registry ID: Award Number: EP/S029575/1The dataset was collected via (1) the GRACE field trial for novel miscanthus hybrids (observed standing crop biomass, light interception, harvest yield) (2) data analysis and modelled extraction of a best-fit curve (light interception) (3) calibration data and validation data were used in the Bioenergy model MiscanFor (Hastings et al, 2009 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1757-1707.2009.01007.x; Shepherd et al, 2020 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12671) The GRACE project contained more sites and more genotypes than the study for this paper, so data for relevant genotypes, years and locations have been extracted, analysed and used for model calibration and validation