Analysis of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) isolation period based on the time series of confirmed cases

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has been estimated to have an incubation period of 2-14 days and a basic reproduction number of 2.24-3.58. The recommended isolation period for people in close contact with patients or suspected patients in various countries/regions is two weeks. Given the many uncertainties regarding the pathogen's transmissibility and virulence, the effectiveness of current infection prevention and control efforts is still unknown. With the data of confirmed cases of novel coronavirus pneumonia, released by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University.(Data cut-off time: 23:00 8/8/20), this paper revealed the diffusion plateau before the outbreak of COVID-19,which is also the outbreak period which can be provided a reference of the isolation period for countries/regions. It found the relationship between COVID-19 cases and time series follows a multi-fractal distribution and that the average outbreak period of COVID-19 is 28 days on the global. Various countries/regions' experiences with control measures show that, to completely prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus, borders must be closed, people must not gather in public in groups of more than two, masks must be worn in public, and the isolation period should be over 28 days. Absent any one of these measures, it is difficult to stop the virus from spreading