Projecting boreal bird responses to climate change: the signal exceeds the noise

Current and projected future potential boreal bird densities (4-km resolution) Citation for journal article associated with this dataset: -------------------- Stralberg, D., S. M. Matsuoka, A. Hamann, E. M. Bayne, P. Sólymos, F. K. A. Schmiegelow, X. Wang, S. G. Cumming, and S. J. Song. 2015. Projecting boreal bird responses to climate change: the signal exceeds the noise. Ecological Applications 25:52-69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/13-2289.1 Coordinate System ------------------ Projection: Lambert Conformal Conic False Easting: 0.00000000 False Northing: 0.00000000 Central Meridian: -95.00000000 Standard Parallel 1: 49.00000000 Standard Parallel 2: 77.00000000 Latitude Of Origin: 0.00000000 Linear Unit: Meter Datum: D WGS 1984 Summary ------- The boreal forest biome provides a resource-rich environment for breeding birds, supporting high species diversity and bird numbers. These birds are likely to shift their distributions northward in response to rapid climate change over the next century. We used a comprehensive dataset of avian point-count surveys from across boreal Canada and Alaska, combined with interpolated climate data, to develop bioclimatic niche models of current avian distribution and density for 80 boreal-breeding songbird species. We then used a downscaling of projected future climates to assess the potential for these species to change their distribution and abundance in response to climate change. Note that projections represent potential densities based on climatic conditions, land use and topography. They do not account for physiographic barriers such as the northern extent of the Rocky Mountains that may prevent colonization of otherwise suitable habitat. Therefore current species’ distributions may be over-estimated in certain regions, particularly in Alaska. Boosted regression tree models of species distribution were averaged across two sets of covariates (climate-only and climate + land use + topography), 11 bootstrap samples, and four global climate models. Mean projections and uncertainty estimates (coefficient of variation) are available for the current period (based on climate data from 1961-1990) and three future time periods (2011–2040, 2041­–2070, 2071–2100). Climate data layers available at tinyurl.com/ClimateNA. Contact ------- Diana Stralberg, University of Alberta (stralber@ualberta.ca) Boreal Avian Modelling Project (borealbirds.ca) Project sponsors ---------------- Boreal Avian Modelling (BAM) Project Alberta Biodiversity Management and Climate Change Adaptation Project Avian data providers -------------- http://www.borealbirds.ca/index.php/data_partners USGS Breeding Bird Survey Breeding Bird Atlases of Canada BAM founding organisations and funders -------------------------------------- Environment Canada University of Alberta Canadian BEACONs Project Financial supporters -------------------- USFWS Neotropical Migratory Bird Conservation Act Vanier Canada Graduate Scholarships Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Institute Alberta Innovates Technology Futures Alberta Pacific Forest Industries Inc. Climate Change and Emissions Management Corporation Joint Canada-Alberta Implementation Plan for Oil Sands Monitoring Killam Trusts Landscape Conservation Cooperatives National Fish and Wildlife Foundation Université Laval Species code definitions ------------------------ Code Common name (Scientific name) ALFL Alder Flycatcher (Empidonax alnorum) ‡ AMCR American Crow (Corvus brachyrhynchos) AMGO American Goldfinch (Spinus tristis) AMPI American Pipit (Anthus rubescens) ‡ AMRE American Redstart (Setophaga ruticilla) AMRO American Robin (Turdus migratorius) ‡ ATSP American Tree Sparrow (Spizella arborea) ‡ BAWW Black-and-white Warbler (Mniotilta varia) BBWA Bay-breasted Warbler (Setophaga castanea) BCCH Black-capped Chickadee (Poecile atricapillus) ‡ BHCO Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater) BHVI Blue-headed Vireo (Vireo solitarius) BLBW Blackburnian Warbler (Setophaga fusca) BLJA Blue Jay (Cyanocitta cristata) BLPW Blackpoll Warbler (Setophaga striata) ‡ BOCH Boreal Chickadee (Poecile hudsonicus) ‡ BRBL Brewer’s Blackbird (Euphagus cyanocephalus) BRCR Brown Creeper (Certhia americana) ‡ BTNW Black-throated Green Warbler (Setophaga virens) CAWA Canada Warbler (Cardellina canadensis) CCSP Clay-colored Sparrow (Spizella pallida) CEDW Cedar Waxwing (Bombycilla cedrorum) CHSP Chipping Sparrow (Spizella passerina) ‡ CMWA Cape May Warbler (Setophaga tigrina) COGR Common Grackle (Quiscalus quiscula) CONW Connecticut Warbler (Oporornis agilis) CORA Common Raven (Corvus corax) ‡ CORE Common Redpoll (Acanthis flammea) ‡ COYE Common Yellowthroat (Geothlypis trichas) CSWA Chestnut-sided Warbler (Setophaga pensylvanica) DEJU Dark-eyed Junco (Junco hyemalis) ‡ EAKI Eastern Kingbird (Tyrannus tyrannus) EAPH Eastern Phoebe (Sayornis phoebe) EVGR Evening Grosbeak (Coccothraustes vespertinus) FOSP Fox Sparrow (Passerella iliaca) ‡ GCKI Golden-crowned Kinglet (Regulus satrapa) ‡ GCTH Gray-cheeked Thrush (Catharus minimus) ‡ GRAJ Gray Jay (Perisoreus canadensis) ‡ HETH Hermit Thrush (Catharus guttatus) ‡ HOLA Horned Lark (Eremophila alpestris) ‡ LCSP Le Conte's Sparrow (Ammodramus leconteii) LEFL Least Flycatcher (Empidonax minimus) LISP Lincoln's Sparrow (Melospiza lincolnii) ‡ MAWA Magnolia Warbler (Setophaga magnolia) MOWA Mourning Warbler (Geothlypis philadelphia) NAWA Nashville Warbler (Oreothlypis ruficapilla) NOWA Northern Waterthrush (Parkesia noveboracensis) ‡ OCWA Orange-crowned Warbler (Oreothlypis celata) ‡ OSFL Olive-sided Flycatcher (Contopus cooperi) ‡ OVEN Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla) PAWA Palm Warbler (Setophaga palmarum) PHVI Philadelphia Vireo (Vireo philadelphicus) PIGR Pine Grosbeak (Pinicola enucleator) ‡ PISI Pine Siskin (Spinus pinus) ‡ PUFI Purple Finch (Carpodacus purpureus) RBGR Rose-breasted Grosbeak (Pheucticus ludovicianus) RBNU Red-breasted Nuthatch (Sitta canadensis) ‡ RCKI Ruby-crowned Kinglet (Regulus calendula) ‡ REVI Red-eyed Vireo (Vireo olivaceus) RUBL Red-winged Blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus) ‡ RWBL Rusty Blackbird (Euphagus carolinus) ‡ SAVS Savannah Sparrow (Passerculus sandwichensis) ‡ SOSP Song Sparrow (Melospiza melodia) SWSP Swamp Sparrow (Melospiza georgiana) SWTH Swainson's Thrush (Catharus ustulatus) ‡ TEWA Tennessee Warbler (Oreothlypis peregrina) TRES Tree Swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) ‡ VATH Varied Thrush (Ixoreus naevius) ‡ VESP Vesper Sparrow (Pooecetes gramineus) WAVI Warbling Vireo (Vireo gilvus) WCSP White-crowned Sparrow (Zonotrichia leucophrys) ‡ WETA Western Tanager (Piranga ludoviciana) WEWP Western Wood-Pewee (Contopus sordidulus) ‡ WIWA Wilson's Warbler (Cardellina pusilla) ‡ WIWR Winter Wren (Troglodytes hiemalis) WTSP White-throated Sparrow (Zonotrichia albicollis) WWCR White-winged Crossbill (Loxia leucoptera) ‡ YBFL Yellow-bellied Flycatcher (Empidonax flaviventris) YRWA Yellow-rumped Warbler (Setophaga coronata) ‡ YWAR Yellow Warbler (Setophaga petechia) ‡ ‡ symbols denote the 38 species currently breeding in the Alaskan boreal region