Macro-Economic Variables and Their Impact on Stock Exchange: A Study of Pakistan (KSE 100 Index)

This study examines the relationship between the Karachi stock exchange and macro-economic variables. Monthly data for the time period July 2005 to April 2014 has been considered. CPI, FX, GDP, INT, Gold prices and oil prices in Pakistan are chosen as the macroeconomic variables. Unit root tests, Johansen and Juselius 1990 Cointegration, long & Short term granger causality under VECM framework along with the Sims 1980 variance decomposition and Pulse impulse response function has been employed. The analysis suggest that there is the long run cointegration among the variables and KSE and all the variables granger cause the KSE 100 index in the long run whereas in short run only forex granger cause KSE. An interesting finding is the significant explanation of variance in KSE 100 Index by the oil prices in Pakistan and the adverse response of the KSE on the one standard deviation shock to the oil prices