Modeling COVID -19 Epidemic of India and Brazil

India has recorded the second-highest infected cases of the Covid-19 in Asia and also the highest in South Asia, Brazil is the second-highest infected cases reported globally after the USA. The growing trend in daily cases of both countries could gain negative consequences on society. Booming of daily cases generate outnumbered of health care facilities and other medical supplies. Therefore, the aim of the study was to forecast the number of infected cases within India and Brazil. The daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 of the two countries for the period of 22nd January 2020 to 1st June 2020 were obtained from the WHO database. The Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ADLM) Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) techniques, Liner trend model, Quadratic trend model, Growth Curve (GC) model, and Pearl — Reed Logistic model were tested. Anderson Darling test, Auto-Correlation Function (ACF), and Ljung-Box Q (LBQ)-test were used as the goodness of fit tests in model validation. The Best-fitting model was selected by comparing relative and absolute measurements of errors. The ARIMA and ADLM did not satisfy the model validation criterion for any of the countries, but the GC and DES did. It's concluded that DES is the best model for forecasting India and Brazil. The results of this study could be used to combat the epidemic