Minimization risk in industrial production and selection optimal decision

The use of a simulation tool based on the Monte Carlo method is proposed; the development of a scenario approach to the analysis of risks is proposed. Simulation modeling is proposed to be composed in three stages: construction of a mathematical model, implementation of simulation, analysis of results. Based on statistical data and expert assessments, the law of distribution of the components of the innovation and investment project was selected. At the stage of building the model, risks are selected - variables based on the rating of elasticity and the assessment of the variable, predicted from the available statistical data and expert information. Simulation is carried out using a computer program. On the basis of simulation experiments, it is repeated, with a given level of accuracy, the law of propagation of the resulting parameter is selected and its main parameters are calculated: mathematical expectation, variance, standard deviation. An important measure of the integral riskiness of a project is the index of expected costs and the likelihood of an ineffective project being implemented