A Simulation of the Market Diffusion of Electric Passenger Cars in Japan and Germany

The market for electric passenger cars (battery and fuel cell electric) is developing dynamically, with global sales amounting to 7.7 million units in 2022, equivalent to a global market share of 9.5%. Germany and Japan are home to the largest car manufacturers in the world. However, the national car markets of both countries diverge in regard to electric vehicle (EV) sales. Germany is among the key EV markets with a sales share of 17.7% in 2022, while the sales share of EVs in Japan amounted to below 2% in the same year. How will these markets continue to develop and which electric drive technology will predominate in future vehicle fleets? In this study, we analyze the market diffusion of electric vehicles in Japan and Germany in the period from 2021 to 2050 in an effort to answer this research question. Therefore, we conducted stated-preference surveys in Japan and Germany in order to evaluate the purchase behavior of private households regarding passenger vehicles with different drivetrain technologies. Subsequently, we estimate multinomial logit models to simulate the purchasing behavior of these households and integrate our findings into passenger vehicle fleet simulations for Japan and Germany for the period from 2021 to 2050. The results for the scenario “Electrification,” which assumes limited availability of fuel cell–electric vehicle (FCEV) models across vehicle segments, show a fleet penetration of 80% battery–electric vehicles (BEVs), 9% FCEVs and a remaining 11% of vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICEs) for Japan in the year 2050. In Germany, the fleet penetration of FCEVs is higher, with 21% compared to 66% BEVs in 2050. Assuming a larger availability of FCEVs across vehicle segments in the scenario “Open Technology” results in an increase of 17% in the fleet penetration of FCEVs in Japan and 21% in Germany, respectively. Both scenarios assume a sales ban on vehicles with ICEs from the year 2035 onwards. If this assumption is omitted, the penetration of fossil-powered cars in the future vehicle fleets of both countries, Japan and Germany, is above 50% in 2050 in all scenarios. This leads to the conclusion that a broad electrification of the passenger vehicle fleets in Japan and Germany can only be achieved if a sales ban on vehicles with ICEs is introduced during the early 2030s.Funding: This work was supported by the Helmholtz Association under the program Energy System Design