Penerapan Metode Moving Average dan Exponential Smoothing pada Peramalan Produksi di PT. Mada Wikri Tunggal

A common problem faced by managers is how to forecast future sales of goods. The use of forecasting techniques is one solution to overcome this problem. Knowing the prediction of future production can certainly help the company prepare the company's strategy for the future. This study uses the Moving Average method of 3 months and 5 months while Exponential Smoothing = 0.1; =0.5; = 0.9 which aims to estimate conditions in the future by using a collection of data in the past, comparing the smallest error rate, then the chosen forecasting method is the Exponential Smoothing method = 0.9 with a Mean value Absolute Deviation (MAD) is 57.7 and Mean Square Error (MSE) is 4,476.34. From the results of the analysis of data processing that has been done based on the selected forecasting method, that consumer demand at PT. Mada Wikri Tunggal for January 2021 using the Exponential Smoothing method = 0.9 for 4,144.4 pcs