Vertical deformation monitoring at Axial Seamount since its 1998 eruption using deep-sea pressure sensors

Pressure measurements made on the seafloor at depths between 1500 and 1700 m at Axial Seamount, an active submarine volcano on the Juan de Fuca Ridge in the northeast Pacific Ocean, show evidence that it has been inflating since its 1998 eruption. Data from continuously recording bottom pressure sensors at the center of Axial's caldera suggest that the rate of inflation was highest in the months right after the eruption (20 cm/month) and has since declined to a steady rate of ∼15 cm/year. Independent campaign-style pressure measurements made each year since 2000 at an array of seafloor benchmarks with a mobile pressure recorder mounted on a remotely operated vehicle also indicate uplift is occurring in the caldera at a rate up to 22 ± 1.3 cm/year relative to a point outside the caldera. The repeatability of the campaign-style pressure measurements progressively improved each year from ± 15 cm in 2000 to ± 0.9 cm in 2004, as errors were eliminated and the technique was refined. Assuming that the uplift has been continuous since the 1998 eruption, these observations suggest that the center of the caldera has re-inflated about 1.5 ± 0.1 m, thus recovering almost 50% of the 3.2 m of subsidence that was measured during the 1998 eruption. This rate of inflation can be used to calculate a magma supply rate of 14 × 106 m3/year. If this rate of inflation continues, it also suggests a recurrence interval of ∼ 16 years between eruptions at Axial, assuming that it will be ready to erupt again when it has re-inflated to 1998 levels