Seasonal prediction of agroclimatic indices in Serbia and Austria

Extreme weather events, like drought and heat waves, their duration and intensity are difficult to predict since they usually depend on large spectre of environmental factors. Seasonal weather forecast (SWF) is therefore a powerful tool in assessing timing and effect of adverse weather conditions for crops. SWF used in this study is one of the newly available data products developed by European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF). SWF is composed of ensembles of individual forecasts coupled to an ocean model and post-processed products of average conditions with the associated uncertainty. SWF products are available up to 7 months ahead with the resolution of 0.5o x 0.5o. To describe appearance and intensity of adverse weather conditions we used full set of meteorological data (temperature, precipitation, radiation, humidity and wind speed). The observed and forecasted meteorological data were in the form of daily averaged values