Model development to match models to the user needs

Energy demand globally has been increasing over the last few decades and, in order to achieve climate neutrality in the EU by 2050, the demand for energy needs to be reduced without affecting the comfort of the citizens. Therefore, the role of energy efficiency measures and renewable energy use has become pivotal in energy science. However, designing policies related to the promotion of energy efficiency or usage of renewable energy depends immensely on the evidence/predictions for a set of scenarios up to a certain timeline that can be provided by the energy demand models. In other words, the findings of energy models can help in identifying the focus area of the policies. Thus, different sector-specific energy demand models can showcase the impact of different policy measures on final energy demand. Since the policy-design in a way depends on the findings of energy demand models, we need to understand whether the demand models can incorporate all of the key parameters and needs of model users (such as policymakers, academicians, NGOs, etc.) into consideration while calculating final energy demand. Thus, to understand the different user needs, this study has used a three-tier methodological approach consisting of a focused literature review (conducted under SENTINEL Deliverables D3.1 and D1.2), an online survey and online interviews with different user groups, and lastly, stakeholder workshops. This three-tier methodological approach unfolds mainly two categories of user-needs: generic/transversal user-needs, and sector-specific user-needs. With the help of four different demand models used in SENTINEL, most of the user-needs are taken into account and this report discusses in detail how individual user-needs are getting addressed through demand models. Some of the user-needs (for example ‘energy demand transition between 2030- 2050’ and ‘role of renewable electricity to meet demand’) can be addressed with the SENTINEL demand models without requiring any upgrades of the models. However, for some of the needs (such as ‘onsite energy production (prosumer profile)’ for the building sector, or ‘fleet distribution’ in the mobility sector) the respective demand models for each sector need some upgrades to address the needs. The objective of this report is to discuss each of the user-needs identified through our three-tier methodology and, further, to document how these needs can be incorporated when calculating final energy demand until 2050. Lastly, this report discusses the next steps after incorporating the energy-needs and also defines a conceptual framework on how different demand models can come together to calculate the sector specific total energy demand which can be then used by the SENTINEL system design and supply modelling module in WP4