Possible Improvements of Methodology for Calculating Radiation Detriment in the Future

As part of its work, ICRP Task Group 102 on Radiation Detriment Calculation Methodology has discussed how to improve the way of calculating radiation detriment in the future. The methodology needs to evolve to take into account advances in healthcare technology and scientific understanding of radiation effects. It will be necessary to update reference population data as well as to expand the geographical coverage. Assumptions for the nominal risk calculation, including the LNT model, the DDREF and the risk transfer scheme, must be examined in the light of the latest scientific findings. Cancer risk models should be revised based on the up-to-date epidemiological data. Cancer severity data require updates and refinement, including consideration of other approaches to quantify the severity of diseases. It is also desirable to review the risk estimate for heritable effects, taking into account recent studies. Another important aspect is handling of the variation of cancer risk with sex and age. It is desirable to calculate lifetime risks separately for males and females and selected ages (age groups) and average these estimates in the last stage to obtain population-averaged values. This approach makes a clear distinction between science-based risk assessment and the subsequent integration of information for radiological protection purposes, thus providing a better understanding of the construction of radiation detriment. Sex- and age-related variation should also be considered in determining the values of tissue weighting factors. Consideration of non-cancer effects, specifically diseases of the circulatory system and cataracts, is one of the hottest topics. There is considerable uncertainty about the shape of the dose-response curve for these effects at low doses. It is still unclear whether there is a threshold. Whether or not to include them in the calculation of the radiation detriment currently remains an open question. Ensuring transparency and traceability of the radiation detriment calculation is becoming increasingly important. A full description of the calculation steps is necessary, and consideration should be given to the development of an open-source software to perform these calculations. Improving the way of communicating the calculation result is also desirable so that non-specialists can have a balanced perspective on the health risks of radiation.License: Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial No Derivatives 2.5 Generic Grants: I would like to leave it blank