Flood risk for urban mobility in Maputo, Mozambique: Regional-scale indexing based on earth observation and demographic data

In Mozambique, extreme weather events have a measurable impact on social and economic growth. Triggered by cyclones and intense rain events, floods have become more frequent in recent years and are expected to follow this trend due to climate change. Recently, major floods following the passage of cyclones Idai and Kenneth (2019) caused 603 fatalities, leaving 1641 people injured and 2.5 million people in need of humanitarian aid, of which 1.3 million were children. At the capital, Maputo, and the surrounding cities and districts (Matola, Marracuene, and Boane) that form the Greater Maputo Area (GMA) accessibility to jobs, health, and education facilities for the poorest population is one of the lowest in Africa, with one-third of public transport users reporting that flooding hinders their access to jobs during rainy days. A methodical investigation of flood risk for the existing road network in Matola and Maputo has been conducted in the framework of a major urban development project planned by the Government of Mozambique. Assessment of flood hazard has been carried out in GIS using the Flood Hazard Index framework based on geomorphological, meteorological, hydrological, and geographical criteria, as well as inventorying of historic floods. To account for climate change, baseline calculations are compared with projections up to 2040. The analysis has considered the exposure of the population in addition to the geospatial distribution of the primary and secondary road network. Socioeconomic parameters relevant to poverty and the presence of vulnerable groups have been considered for the estimation of human vulnerability. The paper presents a novel implementation of the INFORM risk indexing framework for the analysis of flood-induced transportation disruptions in a region where the humanitarian impact of such events can be disproportionate. The outcome of this study is expected to be useful for an equity-centred prioritization of climate adaptation interventions to enhance the resilience and inclusivity of urban transport systems in GMA