Modeling of hazardous situations on vehicles for estimation the occupational risk of drivers

This paper provides an analysis of the complexity of factors related to road transport. The most significant of them are outlined and occupational risk on motor transport is estimated, depending on the conditions of carrying out transport work and the duration of operation of the vehicle. Models of the onset of hazardous situations are developed during separate motor transport works. It is established that the reliability of the modeling is significantly influenced by the insufficient reasonableness of the causes of road traffic accidents and the large number of impacts on the occupational risk of individual elements of the "driver-car-environment" system. It has been shown that the procedure for the determination of occupational risks should be based on statistically significant data on the causes of accidents and the results of monitoring the technical condition of the vehicle systems that determine its accident rate. To evaluate the occupational risk of truck drivers, the SAPHIRE computer program was used, which allows using the Fusel-Veseli and Birnbaum criteria to calculate the probability of a hazardous situation occurring on the basis of a plurality of probabilities of basic events. As a result of the study, the professional risk of drivers in case of nonobservance of norms of occupational safety and the presence of defects in the responsible parts of the system (units) of the truck has been calculated, as well as the degree of risk reduction of emergency transport situations after the introduction of appropriate measures of safety, in particular after removal of defects in the technical condition of the truck. The value of the study is that the application of this approach to the assessment of drivers’ occupational risk factors makes it possible to compare the impact of hazardous factors of different kinds and to determine the overall degree of danger, taking into account the contribution of each individual factor