GIS Based Hydrological Modelling for Climate Change Impact Assessment

In the present study, GIS based hydrological modelling has been used to assess the impacts of climate change on the hydrological regime of Cauvery River Basin in India. The hydrological model used for the study is SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). The analysis has been carried out in three stages. In the first stage, the impact of changes in the land management practices on the water availability in the basin under the present conditions has been modelled. In the second stage, the same analysis has been carried out under the future climatic conditions. The future climate change scenarios have been generated using the daily weather series generated by Hadley Centre, UK (HadRM2). In the third stage, an analysis has been carried out for comparing the annual and monthly precipitation variabilities under the present as well as the futuristic climate change scenarios. The results indicate intensification of the hydrological cycle in the future climate change scenario, which appears to be significant on an annual basis. The study demonstrates that simulation modelling can play a very significant role in conflict resolution by generating a series of scenarios or options for the stakeholders, so as to enable them to take sound rational decisions. Also, implications of climate change on the availability of water in the shared watercourse and consequently, share of each riparian state, can be analysed using modelling techniques