Scenarios for SouthWest Messinia

The scenarios included in this report describe possible future shifts relative to the pursuit of the common vision for the region, that was developed in collaboration with the stakeholders of the region that participated in the Multi Actor Lab workshops. The scenarios in this report consist of narratives and figures describing system external factors and uncertainties that cannot be controlled by actors active within the system, such as droughts and forest fires due to climate change or fluctuating energy prices.. In order to develop strategic policy guidelines and business solutions supporting the pathways towards a resilient future, it was important to be able to measure the system’s vulnerability to shocks, to identify possible tipping points and to explore barriers and drivers for transformation. This was achieved through the application of the uncertainties on the SD model developed in collaboration with the stakeholders and this report includes the outcomes of this modelling work ( Giorgos Maneas, Erasmia Kastanidi, Yiannis Panagopoulos, & Aristomenis P. Karageorgis. (2022). A System Dynamics model of the rural socio-environmental system of the SW Messinia and Gialova lagoon (Version 1) [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7176452)