CONSTRUCTION OF AN INTEGRATED CRITERION FOR ESTIMATING THE CONSEQUENCES OF EMERGENCIES INVOLVING DANGEROUS GOODS

The paper reports a method for estimating the consequences of emergencies involving dangerous cargoes when they are transported by railroad transport. The method is based on constructing an integrated criterion, which takes into consideration those factors that influence the magnitude of risk, which in turn depends on a specific arrangement of wagons in a freight train carrying dangerous cargoes. The criterion chosen is a conditional confidence in the occurrence of greater consequences as a result of an emergency. The criterion depends on: the number of groups of wagons carrying dangerous goods in a train being formed; the total number of wagons with dangerous goods. The criterion is also affected by: the degree of danger in a group to which wagons with dangerous goods are assigned and the number of cases for the co-arrangement of wagons from various risk groups. It was established that the factors' values are constantly changing, so they were described using an apparatus of fuzzy logic and fuzzy sets. The use of such an apparatus has made it possible to comprehensively identify the mutual influence of these factors on a safer option for train formation at marshalling yards. Modeling of possible situations has led to a conclusion about correspondence of the magnitude of values for input fuzzy parameters to the magnitude of values for conditional confidence in the occurrence of greater consequences as a result of an emergency. The obtained results logically indicate the occurrence of greater consequences when a train has the maximum values for fuzzy variables, the medium ones ‒ at medium values, and the minimal consequences at minimum values for fuzzy variables. The relationships have been identified for fuzzy input data, whose analysis revealed that an increase in the value for any fuzzy parameters (and their combinations) leads to an increase in the total value for the magnitude of conditional confidence in the occurrence of greater consequences as a result of emergenc