Earth Observation and model-derived aquaculture indicators report

Space available for aquaculture, in Europe as elsewhere, is in limited supply and high demand. Additional tools are required to support the identification of potential new sites and to assess their suitability and sustainability for various aquaculture segments. In this report, various aquaculture indicators that were derived using satellite Earth Observation and modelling approaches as part of Tools for Assessment and Planning of Aquaculture Sustainability (TAPAS) are presented. These cover far-field, regional ecosystem-scale coastal and offshore aquaculture segments in different parts of Europe. Indicators specific to shellfish and finfish biology and farms are presented, as are more general biogeochemical indicators, and include the identification of current and forecasted future opportunities for aquaculture, as well as environmental risks to the industry. Specifically, satellite ocean-colour observations are used to produce maps of optical water types and suspended particulate matter extremes for the North East Atlantic and Mediterranean, and of harmful algal bloom risk in north-western European waters for the current period (Section 2; PML). Output from a 3D hydrodynamic-biogeochemical ocean model (POLCOMS-ERSEM) is used to produce indicators of current (early-century) and future (mid- and late-century) aquaculture suitability for the Mediterranean Sea and the North West European shelf sea, notably water temperature, phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass, and degree day modelled maps of Pacific oyster spawning and metamorphosis potential, under different climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5; Section 3; PML). Section 3 output is used in further pan-European modelling of Pacific oyster growth potential via dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory, transformed into industry-relevant indicators for the early- and late-century scenarios (Section 4; UN). The evaluation of Mediterranean finfish Aquaculture Allocated Zone carrying capacity, through the modelling of near-surface currents, chlorophyll-a, and dissolved inorganic nutrients used to calculate environmental indicators and an overall environmental index, also made use of Section 3 outputs (Section 5; HCMR). Additional 3D hydrodynamic-biogeochemical ocean modelling (A20) outputs have been used for macro-siting of offshore salmon and mussel aquaculture in the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas, using thresholds of several output variables to establish and map environmental suitability indices for each (Section 6; NIVA). The compiled approaches and proposed indicators are relevant to diverse European aquaculture segments and situations, and could be individually selected or mix-and-matched to best respond to the particular context or question. Using far-field models, large-scale zones of interest are highlighted for broad aquaculture planning and policy development, which can be then considered in higher resolution at subsequent planning and decision-making steps. Long-term sustainability and uncertainties were considered through the implementation of various climate and management scenarios in modelled forecasting of indicators. Such consideration of different scenarios helps zones of interest to be identified, and also serves to highlight which factors are expected have the greatest impact on the given aquaculture sector.This study has received funding from the EU H2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No 678396. This is Deliverable 6.6 from the TAPAS project (Tools for Assessment and Planning of Aquaculture Sustainability). Refer to this document as: Palmer, S., Barillé, L., Gernez, P., Ciavatta, S., Evers-King, H., Kay, S., Kurekin, A., Loveday, B., Miller, P.I., Simis, S., Wilson, R., Tsiaras, K., Wallhead, P., Kristiansen, T., Staalstrøm, A., Dale, T., Bellerby R., 2019. Earth Observation and model-derived aquaculture indicators report. TAPAS project Deliverable 6.6 report. 65 pp. doi: 10.5281/zenodo.358150