Assessing the risk of invasion by a vineyard moth pest guild

Biological invasions are most effectively managed when identified in their early stages, which often hinges on robust surveillance programs. The recent invasion of the European grapevine moth (Lobesia botrana) in California suggests that viticultural areas in the western United States may face severe economic consequences from this and other Tortricid and Pyralid moth species if they were to establish. To gain insights into the risk these grapevine pests pose, we used occurrence records for L. botrana and four other moths native to Europe or the eastern United States and selected environmental variables to predict the extent of climatically suitable areas and potential pest co-occurrence along the West Coast of the United States. A suite of models was generated using MaxEnt with species-specific tuning of model settings. Overall, the results confirmed high suitability for L. botrana to establish across much of the study region, driven largely by high monthly variability in precipitation and low elevation. Two species were predicted to have intermediate suitability to establish over the study region (i.e., grape tortrix moth, Argyrotaenia ljungiana; grape berry moth, Paralobesia viteana), while two others had low suitability (i.e., European grape berry moth, Eupoecilia ambiguella; Christmas berry webworm, Cryptoblabes gnidiella). The highest predicted potential for co-occurrence was between L. botrana and P. viteana, accounting for 19% of the total viticulture area, followed by L. botrana and A. ljungiana for 11% of the study area. These results may help with the optimization of surveillance efforts by indicating which species or areas should be prioritized for the deployment of invasive pest detection programs with pheromone traps. Indeed, given the apparent potential for co-occurrence of multiple moth pests in certain areas, our results may inform where single or multi-lure traps should be deployed as a more cost-efficient monitoring tool