BUSINESS SCENARIO AND STRATEGIES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF HARMONIOUS INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS IN INDONESIA

Abstract The year 2022 that is coming to an end has been characterized by several major events that have impacted the business world, in Indonesia and even globally. The COVID-19 pandemic has almost made all business sectors in Indonesia and even the world experience turbulence. The business world is experiencing faster turbulence characterized by many companies closing down, increasing the intensity of business competition, rapid market changes, and a turbulent industrial relations climate. The manufacturing industry in Indonesia is one of the largest contributors to gross domestic product (GDP) in the last five years. The manufacturing industry, which is one of the sectors that opens up a large number of job opportunities, is expected to be the government's mainstay in overcoming unemployment, especially in welcoming the momentum of the demographic bonus. This research design is inferential quantitative, using sampling and snowball methods and expert respondents with a sample size of 424. The collected data were analyzed using Structural Equation Model (SEM) using LISREL version 8.70, Fuzzy Interpretative Structural Modeling (Fuzzy ISM), and scenario planning. The results show that the industrial relations climate, industrial relations facilities, affects organizational performance. The results of the business scenario analysis for the development of harmonious industrial relations in Indonesia show four scenarios, namely optimistic, semi-optimistic, semi-pessimistic, and pessimistic scenarios where government policies in the form of labor policies and the existence of industrial relations instruments in the form of collective labor agreements (CLAs). These two are the most influential driving forces for the development of harmonious industrial relations in Indonesia because they are considered to have a large impact with high uncertainty (difficult to predict)