A novel systematic pipeline for increased predictability and explainability of growth patterns in children using trajectory features

Objective: Longitudinal patterns of growth in early childhood are associated with health conditions throughout life. Knowledge of such patterns and the ability to predict them can lead to better prevention and improved health promotion in adulthood. However, growth analyses are characterized by significant variability, and pattern detection is affected by the method applied. Moreover, pattern labelling is typically performed based on ad hoc methods, such as visualizations or clinical experience. Here, we propose a novel pipeline using features extracted from growth trajectories using mathematical, statistical and machine-learning approaches to predict growth patterns and label them in a systematic and unequivocal manner. Methods: We extracted mathematical and clinical features from 9577 children growth trajectories embedded with machine-learning predictions of the growth patterns. We experimented with two sets of features (CAnonical Time-series Characteristics and trajectory features specific to growth), developmental periods and six machine-learning classifiers. Clinical experts provided labels for the detected patterns and decision rules were created to associate the features with the labelled patterns. The predictive capacity of the extracted features was validated on two heterogenous populations (The Applied Research Group for Kids and the 2004 Pelotas Birth Cohort, based in Canada and Brazil, respectively). Results: Features predicted the identified growth patterns with ≥ 80% accuracy in both cohorts. A small number of features (n=74) was sufficient to distinguish between growth patterns in both cohorts. Slope, intercept of the trajectory, age at peak value, start value and change of the growth measure were among the top identified features. Conclusion: Growth features can be reliably used as predictors of growth patterns and provide an unbiased understanding of growth patterns. They can be used as tool to reduce the effort to repeat analysis and variability concerning anthropometric measures, time points and analytical methods, in the context of the same or similar populations