Scenario modeling of animal husbandry development taking into account the Sustainable Development Goals

The relevance of the study is determined by the need to analyze the consequences of the concentration of livestock facilities not only from an economic point of view, but also from an ecological point of view. The purpose of the study is to develop ways of sustainable development of animal husbandry Russia, taking into account the opportunities for the development of meat and milk exports, modern environmental problems (the growth of farm waste) and the possibilities of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The subject of the study is the environmental indicators characterizing the ex ternalia arising from the production of livestock products (meat, milk, eggs). In the course of the work, traditional scientific methods were used – descriptive, analytical, statistical and methods of economic and mathematical modeling. The sources of information were Russian and foreign scientific publications, official publications of normative legal documents and statistical data of state authorities of Russia, as well as foreign databases on agricultural statistics. The results of the study showed that the concentration of livestock production facilities leads to various environmental consequences. Among the leading regions the highest concentration of livestock producers has developed in the Central Chernozem region: the Belgorod and Kursk regions account for almost 30% of all waste from agriculture in Russia. Greenhouse gas emissions were estimated using the GLOBIOM partial equilibrium model. The results of calculations have shown that in the Belgorod region one of the lowest indicators of carbon trace in the production of livestock products: 8 tons of CO2 equiv. / t of protein, which is associated with the low-carbon development of poultry farming. In other regions, where the specialization of dairy and beef cattle breeding, the carbon footprint, as a minimum, is 2 times higher, for example, in the Krasnodar Territory, however, the indicators of waste output per unit of production, on the contrary, are less there. Thus, the scientific novelty of the research lies in the development of scientific and analytical tools for the correct identification of local, regional and global environmental risks when assessing production efficiency meat, milk and eggs. So, in our study, local risks were assessed through the concentration of manure elements (nitrogen) per unit of agricultural land and acreage at the municipal level. Regional risks were assessed through the indicator waste from agricultural products produced. And global risks were assessed through the greenhouse gas emissions indicator, which also allowed us to estimate the so -called cumulative "carbon footprint" of each region in terms of the unit of animal protein produced. Based on the results of the study, recommendations were developed to improve statistical reporting on production waste in the agricultural sector, it is also recommended to collect and publish data on various types of feeding of farm animals in different categories of farms, which will subsequently help to better calculate both animal diets and their potential waste and greenhouse gas emissions, in order to identify the most "dirty" and "sustainable" animal husbandry practitioner