Data from: Current and projected future risks of freshwater fish invasions in China

Biological invasions are a primary threat to global biodiversity, supporting mounting calls for the development of early-warning systems to manage existing and emerging invaders. Here, we evaluated the geographical pattern of invasion risks of currently established and potentially emerging nonnative freshwater fishes in China by jointly considering the threats of introduction and establishment under climate change. Introduction threats were estimated according to proxies of human activities and propagule pressure for two primary pathways (aquaculture or ornamental). Establishment threats for 51 current and 64 potential invaders (based on whether having established or not self-sustaining populations) were assessed using an ensemble of species distribution models under current (1960-1990) and future [2041-2060 (2050s) and 2061-2080 (2070s)] climate scenarios. Geographical patterns of invasion risk were then assessed by overlaying the threats of introduction and establishment for each species group both in present-day and in the future. We found that eastern China displayed the highest threat of introduction. In contrast, southeastern and northwestern regions were identified as the most suitable for the establishment of both current and potential future invaders. Under a changing climate, 83 out of 115 species displayed an increase in habitat suitability, resulting in an overall increase of 4.8% by 2050s and 7.1% by 2070s in the extent of suitable habitat for nonnative freshwater fishes. Taken together, invasion risk was found to be highest in southeastern China and lowest in the Tibet Plateau. Our research highlights the importance of assessing invasion risk by integrating the threats associated with the introduction and establishment stages. In particular, our findings revealed convergent patterns of invasion risk between current and potential nonnative freshwater fishes under climate change. Geographic patterns in hotspots of existing and emerging invasions provide critical insights to guide the allocation of resources to monitor and control existing and emerging invasions in China.The high-resolution maps of habitat suitability for all species under current and future (2050s and 2070s) climatic scenariosSpatial patterns of species-specific establishment threat under current, 2050s and 2070s climate scenarios for the 115 species considered in this study. The upright panel indicates the changes in species establishment threat expressed as the total suitable area (10^6 km2). The middle panel represents the probability (%) of presence predicted by species distribution models (SDMs) at different time horizons. The lower panel represents the uncertainty in establishment threat expressed as the coefficient of variation of the occurrence probabilities among all projections. The color of species name corresponds to four groups clustered based on introduction pathways and species status. Darkorange: Current aquaculture species, Turquoise: Current ornamental species, Burlywood: Potential aquaculture species, Darkslategray: Potential ornamental species.HabitatSuitabilityMaps.zi